So will the US indeed have a calm and measured end to its boom – the hope I expressed last week? I fear – and gosh, I hope I am wrong – that it won't. The Biden bonanza will end in a Trump bust. This is a minority view. Bloomberg has gone through Wall Street expectations, noting that nearly all are on the side of another positive year. BlackRock Investment Institute, for example, says: 'We are staying pro-risk. We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger growth. We up our overweight to US equities.'.
JP Morgan Chase agrees: 'We are positive on US risky assets in a world where US exceptionalism gets reinforced.'. Citi says: 'For the US, we are watching developments closely but are broadly encouraged. We stick to the risk-on stance into year-end with a US exceptionalism flavour.'.
Over in Beverly Hills, Bel Air Investment Advisors is quite explicit: 'We expect the bull market in global equities will likely continue in 2025, with the US again likely to outperform the rest of the world.'. Naturally, after two stunning years, with the S&P 500 index up more than 20 per cent in both 2023 and 2024, there are notes of caution. Most investment advisers warn people not to expect another year of top-end returns like that.
Looking ahead: There are concerns about Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Fidelity thinks: 'We are mid- to late-cycle, and not end-of-cycle, creating a volatile environment that should generally be good for risk assets but puts a premium on getting investment choices right.'.
