What would reaching net zero mean for life in 2040s Britain?

Official advice on meeting our emissions targets by 2050 covers all aspects of society, including food, travel and work. The government’s climate advisers have published their latest official advice on meeting the UK’s legally binding target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The advice, which covers the period from 2038 to 2042, contains dozens of recommendations covering all aspects of society. But how will Britons’ lifestyles change under these plans?.

How much meat is there in a doner kebab? About 130g, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK’s statutory advisers on climate action, and we currently each consume the equivalent of eight such meals every week. Cutting down to the equivalent of six – from just over 1kg of meat a week to about 780g – would be better for our health. Livestock numbers need to be reduced – farming is likely to be among the UK’s biggest sources of carbon dioxide emissions in 2040 – and beef and lamb are the prime targets. The CCC believes these changes will come gradually as people are already changing their diets to include more vegetables and less meat, with some help from government information campaigns.

Perhaps as soon as next year, or by 2028, the CCC estimates that electric cars will reach the same price levels as petrol and diesel models. This is likely to spur greater take-up, and by 2040 no new fossil fuel vehicles will be available. But people should also be encouraged to walk and cycle, and public transport must play a crucial role, the CCC said. “Better infrastructure enables more people to choose public transport, cycling, or walking instead of driving, bringing the UK closer in line with countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and the Netherlands,” the report found.

Most people in the UK heat their homes with gas, but by 2040 most will need electric heat pumps if the UK’s carbon targets are to be met. This does not mean ripping out gas boilers – replacing old gas appliances with electric ones can be done when the existing ones wear out. This is likely to require some form of government intervention and support, as heat pumps are still expensive. Hydrogen, posited by some as a way to carry on using the UK’s existing gas supply networks to replace gas in home heating systems, is definitely out – it will never be cheap enough or feasible, according to multiple studies, and the CCC said its use would be largely confined to industrial settings.

More than half of people in the UK do not take a flight in any given year, so flying has always been – and is likely to remain – a luxury activity, except for those in far-flung places and Northern Ireland. Researchers are working on sustainable alternatives, from electric aeroplanes to sustainable biofuels, and the CCC believes the industry should pay for that. While flying is likely to take up a bigger proportion of the UK’s carbon budget by 2040, people will still be taking more flights than they are today – a 10% expansion of the sector is on the cards. Previous warnings by the CCC that no airports could be expanded without corresponding cuts to carbon elsewhere have been dropped in favour of a looser recommendation that the projected increase in flying must be limited.

Flying is also likely to cost more. Citizens’ panels were very supportive of levies on airline tickets, seeing flying as a choice and a luxury in most cases. This could raise billions for the government, and a slice could be used to fund climate action around the world.

Twice as many trees must be planted each year between now and 2030 to meet the UK’s target of 16% tree coverage by 2040, up from about 13% today. Peatlands will also play a key role: the proportion of UK peatlands in natural or rewetted conditions should rise from 26% in 2023 to 55%. Most of this scale-up needs to take place this decade, and would deliver more than half the land use emissions reductions by 2040.

As more of our lives – heating, transport, industry – starts to be powered by electricity rather than oil and gas, our needs for power generation will double by 2040. As well as asking people to generate more of their own through solar panels, the higher needs will require a doubling of onshore wind turbines, and a sixfold increase in offshore wind turbines. New nuclear power stations, small or large, are also likely to be needed, despite costing many times more than renewable sources.

Recent research by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) found the UK’s net zero economy is surging ahead, growing at a rate three times faster than the rest of the economy. No figure was put on the overall number of new green jobs likely to be created by 2040 in the CCC’s carbon budget, but some sectors will enjoy a boost: renewables and nuclear power could create more than 50,000 direct jobs by 2030; making alternative proteins to replace meat could create 25,000 jobs by 2035; demand for forestry workers could create 7,000 to 37,000 new jobs by 2030; and the rollout of heat pumps was previously estimated to create 120,000 to 230,000 jobs, but that could be lowered slightly.