Whither the next great tennis rivalry? Maybe don’t hold your breath

Tennis has been awash for nearly 60 years with stellar rivalries, especially on the men’s side. But it’s becoming clear the next great one might not be around the corner. The Australian Open exists on its own in the tennis calendar at the start of the year – not really connected to what came before or what ensues immediately after; it’s nearly five months removed from both the US Open that precedes it and the French Open that follows it. For most followers of the sport, the real start of the calendar year tennis season, for both men and women, is the PNB Paribas event at Indian Wells, which starts on Wednesday. Long considered the sport’s “fifth slam”, the tournament starts a torrid nonstop stretch of seven months of intense competition. As this long winter slowly loses its grip on the country, fans will revel in watching the best men and women competing under the hot desert sun.

But, unfortunately, the men’s side of the draw will be somewhat lacking because of the absence of Jannik Sinner, due to his three-month ban from competition for his “inadvertent” doping. Sinner will be able to resume playing on 4 May, in time for the Italian Open and then Roland Garros.

For such a high-profile event to lose the No 1 male player deprives the fans of a possible showdown between Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. And while Alexander Zverev currently holds the second position in the rankings and is now viewed as the “best player to never win a slam”, there’s no question that the rivalry to watch in this current era in the sport will be between Sinner and Alcaraz – they are indisputably the two best players in the world. As it stands now Alcaraz leads their head-to-head meetings, six matches to four. Alcaraz also owns more slam titles (four) than Sinner (three).

Tennis doesn’t have the luxury that team sports do when it comes to rivalries. When the Red Sox and Yankees play, for example, there’s always an extra jolt of energy no matter their respective places in the standings. They could be mired in the AL East cellar but the game would still have extra import due to their storied and fierce rivalry; the same is true with the Celtics and Lakers, or Eagles and Cowboys or any number of NHL, NBA, NFL or MLB rivalries.

For better or worse, rivalries in tennis are solidified and defined by grand slam encounters. While Sinner and Alcaraz have met at major tournaments on several occasions, they’ve yet to contest a slam final – or, for that matter, even a Masters 1000 final.

Tennis has been awash for nearly 60 years with stellar rivalries, especially on the men’s side. Since the open era commenced in 1968, there’s been a nearly uninterrupted run of rivalries: the Australians – Rod Laver, Ken Rosewall, John Newcombe – until the early 70s; then the Jimmy Connors-Bjorn Borg-John McEnroe duels; followed by the oft-overlooked mid-to-late-80s period when Ivan Lendl, Mats Wilander, Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker routinely competed against each other for majors; then Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi’s rivalry defined the 90s. And finally, of course, there is the 20-year period that just ended, inarguably the greatest rivalry era in the history of the sport with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. To state the obvious, the tennis fan has been spoiled.

One of many aspects that made the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic encounters so intriguing is that they contested so many slam finals on all surfaces. This was most certainly a rare thing. Consider how McEnroe and Connors never could consistently go deep at the French Open or how Lendl struggled mightily on grass and Sampras also never could master the red dirt.

It’s too early to tell of course how the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry will develop. At this point it would appear that Alcaraz has the clear edge since he is far more suited to all-surface play than is Sinner. With his astounding movement and ability to hit any shot from any location on the court, Alcaraz is the one player on tour who isn’t mowed down by the brute force of the Sinner forehand. It’s also worth noting that Djokovic has contested two slam finals with Alcaraz, including one of the best matches of recent memory, at the 2023 Wimbledon final. If it wasn’t for his inevitable and impending retirement, the Djokovic-Alcaraz rivalry was already more luminous than that of Alcaraz and Sinner.

The question going forward: who will be that younger, key third player to challenge the supremacy of Alcaraz and Sinner? At this point no one has emerged in that position as the yawning gap between Alcaraz-Sinner and the rest of the field is only growing. American Ben Shelton, who is working on adding greater consistency off the ground to balance his serving prowess looks to be a prime candidate. Another player who many believe will be the next threat to the top is Joao Fonseca. While the 18 year-old Brazilian has only made the main draw of a slam once (2025 Australian Open), there appears to be consensus among the tennis cognoscenti that Fonseca and his preternaturally powerful groundstrokes will undoubtedly be the next big thing in the sport.