Who could be the next pope after Vatican issues health update on Francis

The Catholic world was thrown into uncertainty earlier this month when Pope Francis was taken to hospital with a respiratory tract infection. Over the following days, the 88-year-old pontiff’s infection spiralled into pneumonia in both lungs and kidney failure.

He remains in ‘critical condition’ at a hospital in Rome. ‘The pope had a tranquil night and is resting,’ the Vatican said this morning. Francis may yet recover, but his health scare has raised questions over who would become the next pope if he were to die.

A pope’s death is confirmed by the head of the Vatican’s health department and the Holy Roman Church’s cardinal chamberlain. The current cardinal chamberlain, camerlengo in Italian, Kevin Joseph Farrell, would automatically become the Vatican’s top administrator and is charged with revealing to the world the pope has passed.

The pope’s body, dressed in a white cassock, would be taken to a private chapel where Farrell, church officials and the pope’s family would watch Francis be placed into a coffin. That’s up to the College of Cardinals to decide. From the time a pope dies to the election of a new one is called the sede vacante, or ‘the seat is vacant’.

The 266th pontiff of the Catholic Church does not have a successor in the traditional sense. Technically, any baptized Roman Catholic man could replace him. But the Vatican has a raft of time-honoured traditions – many secret – that pick the next sovereign of Vatican City.

When the wrangled cardinals meet at the Sistine Chapel, they pick a pope by secret ballot in a process called the conclave, Latin for ‘the key’. A two-thirds majority is needed and only cardinals under the age of 80 can vote – and they’ll likely have to vote a fair few times. The cardinals, called cardinal electors, keep ticking boxes until a majority is reached.

And they’ll know when this happens. After every vote, smoke is released into St Peter’s Square. If the smoke is white, the world has a new pope, if it’s black, no majority was reached. Once the smoke clears, the college dean, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, asks the chosen successor if they want to wear the cassock.

Once – if – they say yes, the new pontiff is dressed in white and walks to the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica. ‘Habemus papam,’ a Vatican official will say, or, ‘We have a pope,’ in English. There are 22 strong names on the list, according to the College of Cardinals Report.

But Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines is the bookies’ favourite. Long considered a pope-to-be for his more relaxed, progressive views in line with Francis’, Tagle has criticised the church’s historic treatment of LGBTQ+ people and other groups.

‘The harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers etc, in the past they were quite severe,’ he said in 2015. ‘Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society.’.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin is another on the shortlist. Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013 and a longtime diplomat, is often seen as a safe pair of hands within the church. Parolin told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that any speculation that the Pope would resign over his health is ‘unfounded’.

Cardinal Peter Erdö, the former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe and Hungary’s most powerful prelate, is widely seen as the strongest right-wing frontrunner. Erdö, whose odds of becoming pope are 7/1, has been critical of marriage equality, the idea of divorced Catholics taking part in Holy Communion and European countries accepting asylum seekers.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu has been similarly on the other side of the current pope’s beliefs. From the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Besungu once said the Fiducia supplicans, the Vatican’s declaration on same-sex blessings, does not apply to Africa.

Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, meanwhile, has never shied away from topics considered taboo to church officials, from HIV to climate change. ‘If God would wish to see a black man also as pope, thanks be to God,’ he said in 2009. Cardinal Raymond Burke, among Francis’s most vocal critics, is also seen as a strong contender. He has described the more relaxed language Francis uses around LGBTQ+ rights and artificial contraception as ‘objectionable’.

‘I’ve lived long enough to even have people who opposed me very strongly, years later corresponding with me telling me they understood finally what it was that I was doing,’ Burke told The New York Times in 2019. ‘These things are natural, but I don’t think the church ever serves her mission by compromising with the world.’.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, sees the world a little differently. Often described as Francis’ ‘favourite’, Zuppi has often stressed inclusivity and social justice, such as developing a fresh pastoral approach with ‘our LGBT brothers and sisters’.