Some of pop’s biggest artists are vying for the top prizes this year. Roisin O’Connor picks the most likely candidates for the ‘big four’ categories. The Grammy Awards are notorious for getting it wrong. Over the years, the Recording Academy has caused uproar as it either snubs those artists deemed most deserving or goes with a rogue choice that no one saw coming. This means that each year it’s really anyone’s guess, no matter how much of a certainty an artist might seem.

In 2025, the “big four” categories of Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist are as competitive as ever, with breakthrough pop stars Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter muscling up against heavyweights like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. Pioneering British artist Charli XCX and groundbreaking, Pulitzer Prize-winning rapper Kendrick Lamar are up against The Beatles; UK singer and Grammys first-timer RAYE is competing with viral stars Benson Boone and Teddy Swims.

Ahead of the ceremony in Los Angeles on Sunday 2 February, here’s a look at the runners and riders for the big four categories at the Grammys. The Beatles - “Now and Then”. Beyoncé - “Texas Hold ’Em”. Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”. Charli XCX - “360”. Billie Eilish - “Birds of a Feather”. Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”. Chappell Roan - “Good Luck, Babe!”. Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - “Fortnight”.

A reminder for the uninitiated: the Record of the Year prize is distinguished from Song of the Year by recognising the artists, producers and engineers who contributed to the recording, while Song of the Year deals more with the composition and recognises the songwriters behind the track. That said, most people – voters included – don’t often find much meaningful difference between the two. If we are following those Grammy guidelines, though, The Beatles could be a controversial win due to the use of AI technology to retrieve the vocal and instrument stems of a muddled recording by John Lennon at his piano in the years before his death. It’s certainly clever, perhaps even groundbreaking, and The Beatles’ status alone could help to sway voters.

However, there’s plenty of competition from Kendrick Lamar’s slick and sharp “Not Like Us”, a Monk Higgins’-sampling diss track aimed at fellow hip-hop star Drake that served – to many – as the killshot in their longstanding feud. Charli XCX’s “360”, the second single from her critically adored album Brat, incorporates hyperpop and electropop fizz from regular collaborators AG Cook and Cirkut.

Grammys favourites Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish and Beyoncé are all in the mix: Swift with her gloomy, Eighties-influenced “Fortnight” ft Post Malone, Eilish with her sleeper hit “Birds of a Feather”, and Beyoncé with “Texas Hold ’Em”, her foray into country music. Relative newcomer Chappell Roan is nominated for her runaway hit, the shuffly, squelchy baroque-synth bop “Good Luck, Babe!”, while her fellow breakthrough star, Sabrina Carpenter, feels like a potential shoo-in thanks to “Espresso”, a shot of perfectly produced pop.

Should win: Kendrick Lamar - “Not Like Us”. Will win: Sabrina Carpenter - “Espresso”. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” - Sean Cook, Jerrell Jones, Joe Kent, Collins Obinna Chibueze, Nevin Sastry and Mark Williams - songwriters (Shaboozey). “Birds of a Feather” - Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell - songwriters (Billie Eilish). “Die with a Smile” - Dernst Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt - songwriters (Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars).

“Fortnight” - Jack Antonoff, Austin Post and Taylor Swift - songwriters (Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone). “Good Luck, Babe!” - Kayleigh Rose Amstutz, Daniel Nigro and Justin Tranter - songwriters (Chappell Roan). “Not Like Us” - Kendrick Lamar - songwriter (Kendrick Lamar). “Please Please Please” - Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff and Sabrina Carpenter - songwriters (Sabrina Carpenter). “Texas Hold ‘Em” - Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq - songwriters (Beyoncé).

As usual, there’s plenty of overlap in this category with the Song of the Year group. Instead of “Espresso”, though, Carpenter is competing with her latest album’s fizzy second single “Please Please Please”, in which she asks/warns her bad boy lover not to embarrass her. Elsewhere, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’s Billboard 100-topping smash “Die with a Smile” could cause a big upset if it wins over the likes of Lamar.

Fans might remember that Mars has previous with the Compton rapper, having scooped him for the coveted Album of the Year prize in 2018 when many believed Lamar should have won for his critically adored fourth record, DAMN. Will win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”. Should win: Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”. Benson Boone. Sabrina Carpenter. Doechii. Chappell Roan. Shaboozey. Khruangbin. Teddy Swims. These days, Best New Artist categories tend to feel embarrassingly out-of-touch considering the rapid pace of music consumption in the age of streaming. Still, both Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter would be worthy contenders after their huge breakthroughs in 2024, ditto Raye – the sole British contender on this year’s list – who swept the Brit Awards in a fairytale evening last March.