The 18 months figure is a common misquote since there was a separate prediction by Moore’s colleague, Intel Executive David House that Moore’s Law would mean that chip performance would double every 18 months, with no increase in power consumption.
AGI is an artificial intelligence that is on a par with, or smarter than, human intelligence, and developing it is the whole reason that companies like OpenAI exist because the benefits of AGI could be truly world-changing, despite the dangers that we keep getting warned about.
Altman doesn’t predict these changes happening in 2025, but since he’s already gone on record saying that humanity will achieve AGI this year, the changes would appear to be right around the corner.
However, Altman’s point is that the falling cost of using AI is another indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is “coming into view”.
Companies like OpenAI are committed to developing AGI, but the dangers inherent in who controls this technology are something that Altman is urging us to start considering and talking about right now.
