It's taken a while but, at last, Mikel Arteta has realised he needs a new striker if Arsenal are to win the Premier League – and the man he wanted to fire them to it was Ollie Watkins. Mail Sport broke the news that Arsenal had made a late swoop for the Aston Villa striker, one instantly rebuffed, and it now looks increasingly unlikely they will get their man now that team-mate Jhon Duran has moved to Saudi Arabia.

Gabriel Jesus, the club's only out-and-out striker, will be side lined for the foreseeable future with a knee injury and Bukayo Saka is alongside him with a thigh problem so it's easy to see why Arteta might want some reinforcements. The big implication, though, is that Arteta has decided that Kai Havertz is not the man capable of winning them the title after all. It was only back in October that the pieces being written were about how Arteta's patience in Havertz was now paying off. Four goals in his final five Premier League games of last season, including a brace against Chelsea and the winner at Tottenham, was followed by another six in his first 10 matches in all competitions this term.

Havertz joined Arsenal in the summer of 2023 but it was not until last February that Arteta started to play him as his side's regular striker. Mail Sport revealed Arsenal made a bid for Ollie Watkins, but they are unlikely to get their man. The offer suggests Mikel Arteta believes Kai Havertz is not capable of winning them the title. Since then, he's scored 17 league goals. That's a fair return but, even excluding penalties, that's fewer than Manchester City's main striker Erling Haaland, Newcastle's main striker Alexander Isak, Brentford's main striker Yoanne Wissa, Crystal Palace's main striker Jean-Philipe Mateta and Nottingham Forest's main striker Chris Wood.

It is, however, the same number of non-penalty goals before this weekend as Mohamed Salah and, guess who, Ollie Watkins. The vultures are out again, though, after Havertz missed two sitters against Manchester United in the FA Cup only to see his penalty saved in the shootout as the Gunners crashed out. He squandered another huge opportunity against Newcastle in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.

Havertz had three 'big chances' against Wolves, ones that stat gurus Opta define as a situation where a player is reasonably expected to score, and missed all three. He's failed to score against Spurs twice this season, Newcastle twice, Manchester United twice, Liverpool and Chelsea. It's clear he's not the most ruthless front man. His shot conversion rate since moving up front is about 18.5 per cent. So fewer than one in five of his shots go in. Isak this season is better than one in four. Wood scores one in three. That's why Forest are still in top-four contention.

Havertz's scoring rate, though, is not awful. It's not Bruno Fernandes bad, who scores with one in every 12 shots this season. In fact, it's not much worse than Haaland this season, who lingers at around 20 per cent. Over his entire Liverpool career, Salah's is only around 17 per cent. Haaland and Salah, though, get a hatful of chances. Havertz doesn't. The vultures are back out for Havertz after his penalty miss against Man United in the FA Cup.

Havertz has the same number of non-penalty goals as Watkins, but is not a ruthless front man. As this column has raised before, Arsenal are nowhere near title contenders when it comes to creating chances from open play. Before this weekend, Arsenal had created 205 of them. That was only the eighth best in the league, fewer than Fulham and only one more than famously useless Manchester United. Liverpool had created nearly 70 more from a game fewer. Man City, 85 more.

If Haaland or Salah miss a couple, they'll get another. That's not always the case with Havertz. Haaland and Salah average around four shots a game this season with two on target. Havertz averages about 2.5 shots with fewer than one on target. When seven of your last Premier League games have been either drawn or decided by a single goal, it makes it even more of a necessity to have a striker who will take the chances when they come.

There are few strikers that Arteta could sign with more Premier League goalscoring pedigree than Watkins. Since his debut for Villa in 2020, only Salah, Haaland, Son Heung-min and Harry Kane have scored more Premier League goals. No other striker has as many assists. It's not clear, though, that Watkins is much more ruthless in front of goal than Havertz. Over the last 12 months, Watkins has hit the target with 49 per cent of his shots. Havertz has done so with 47 per cent of his. Watkins has scored 17 non-penalty goals. So has Havertz.

Watkins has scored from 19 per cent of his shots. Havertz has scored with 19 per cent of his. Watkins has converted 36 per cent of his big chances. Havertz has converted 40 per cent of his. Same numbers, different reputation. Havertz plays a key role in Arsenal's current system and thrives in his work off the ball. Arteta needs his striker to score more goals but he also demands they do much, much more than that. Arsenal are relentless when they don't have the ball and that's where Havertz thrives.