Champions League last 16: tie-by-tie analysis and predictions

Aston Villa and Arsenal will fancy their chances of progress, while Liverpool will face a challenge to oust in-form PSG. Villa produced probably their worst performance of the season in losing the meeting of the sides in the group stage, Brugge winning 1-0 with a penalty awarded after Tyrone Mings, not realising a dead ball had been taken, picked up the ball. Villa may be grateful for that: had they taken a point from that game they would have been facing Bayern in the last 16. That said, as domestic form has stagnated, the victory over Bayern, a repeat of the scoreline from the 1982 European Cup final, probably represents the high point of their season so far. Domestically this hasn’t been a great campaign for Brugge either. They lie eight points behind Racing Genk but for them too the Champions League has provided salvation. They sneaked into the playoff with three wins but then were much the better side against Atalanta, winning home and away.

Verdict: Narrow Aston Villa win. Lille were perhaps the biggest surprise of the league stage, beating Atlético and Real Madrid and hammering Feyenoord as they finished seventh. Canada’s Jonathan David, who scored six times, is clearly a dangerous front man but a lack of creativity may hold them back; there is a reason why they are fifth in Ligue 1, having scored eight goals fewer than any side above them. This has been a difficult season for Dortmund, who are 11th in the Bundesliga. Nuri Sahin was sacked after four straight defeats after the winter break and, while three wins in seven under Niko Kovac isn’t a startling uptick, the Guinean centre-forward Serhou Guirassy has hit form and that run did include an impressive 3-0 win at Sporting in the playoffs – albeit Sporting are not the side they were before the departure of Ruben Amorim.

Verdict: Narrow Lille win. Real Madrid lie one point and one position above Atlético in La Liga, and both league meetings this season finished 1-1, so it should be tight – although on all five previous occasions they have met in European competition, Real Madrid have come out on top. Atlético were the form team in Europe until last month’s defeat at Leganés, having won 15 in a row, a run that enabled them to surge back after two early defeats to qualify fifth in the league phase. Even though results have dipped slightly over the past month, they have lost only one of their past 23, as Diego Simeone continues to defy convention. As Kylian Mbappé demonstrated with his hat-trick against Manchester City on Wednesday, he is finally beginning to settle at Madrid, but this remains a battle between a team based on discipline and organisation and one reliant on the inspiration of brilliant individuals.

Verdict: Narrow Real Madrid win. The sides drew 1-1 in Munich in September before a goalless draw at the BayArena last week, a game in which Leverkusen looked much the better side and hit the woodwork twice. Bayern are eight points clear at the top of the Bundesliga but doubts remain about Vincent Kompany, largely because of performances in Europe. They lost to Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the group stage, and squeaked through their playoff against Celtic only with an injury-time winner after a performance in which they looked worryingly slow and mannered. Following last season’s undefeated Bundesliga success was always going to be difficult for Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen side, but while they have probably drawn too many games, they have lost only once in the league. Group-stage results were a mixed bag: Leverkusen were the only side to beat Inter, but they lost at Atlético and were well beaten at Liverpool. Florian Wirtz’s recent form could be decisive.

Verdict: Narrow Leverkusen win. Defensively, Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League, and only Inter conceded fewer in the league stage, but they had goalscoring issues even before their front three went down with hamstring injuries. Inter were the only team to beat them in the league stage and they have lost only twice in the Premier League. Given Mikel Arteta’s emphasis on control, two-leg ties may suit them, but set plays and Mikel Merino may not be sufficient sources of goals. Peter Bosz’s side lost to Juventus in the league phase, then lost to them again in the first leg of their playoff, but victory in the second leg saw them through after extra time. Second in the Eredivisie, PSV are a typical Bosz side, full of goals and leaky at the back. When the sides met in last season’s group, they drew in Eindhoven but Arsenal were 4-0 winners at the Emirates.

Verdict: Comfortable Arsenal win. Sign up to Football Daily. Kick off your evenings with the Guardian's take on the world of football. after newsletter promotion. Six wins, a draw at Manchester City and only one defeat, by Leverkusen, saw Inter navigate the group stage with comfort. Most impressive was their defensive record: one goal conceded in those eight games, although they have been less stingy in Serie A. Lautaro Martínez, meanwhile, continues to be a forward who divides opinion, somehow simultaneously prolific and profligate. Feyenoord, fourth in the Eredivisie, sacked Brian Priske last week and are yet to appoint a full-time replacement. Their group stage was erratic: they came from 3-0 down to draw with Manchester City, won at Benfica, beat Bayern 3-0 and yet also went down 6-1 at Lille. Most confusingly, their playoff win over Milan, under the interim Pascal Bosschaart, was based on containment. Much will depend on the battle of the Inter wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Di Marco and Feyenoord’s wide forwards Anis Moussa and Igor Paixão.