Cutting Medicaid and raising the debt limit: Mike Johnson struggles to get Republicans behind Trump’s budget

Analysis: ‘One big, beautiful bill’ could pass thanks to Speaker’s hard work and a few gifts from the Democrats, writes John Bowden. It’s coming down to the wire for Mike Johnson and the House of Representatives. With a Rules Committee vote today and a full vote planned on the floor of the chamber Tuesday, the GOP speaker of the House is aiming to pass the “one big, beautiful bill” representing the framework for the federal budget.

“We believe we'll have the votes,” Johnson told reporters on Monday. There’s just one problem. Well, three, actually: the three Republican members (Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett and Thomas Massie) who have already signalled their opposition to the legislation, dooming it if the Democrats hold the line against it. Johnson can afford just one defection, with all Democrats in attendance, given his narrow majority.

Others could soon follow; some members are incensed over cuts to Medicaid and other social services. The bill also raises the debt limit, which is a major ask for some of the chamber’s biggest fiscal hawks. Johnson is looking to the president for support in this key hour. He’s also watching to see if one Democratic representative, Kevin Mullin, will make tomorrow’s vote; the congressman posted a video from his hospital bed, where he is recovering from a blood clot, on Monday afternoon.

Raul Grijalva, another Democrat, has been absent for weeks. The 77-year-old Arizonan has not voted on a piece of legislation this session — giving Republicans yet another likely reprieve. Their absences, together, would give Johnson just slightly more breathing room — possibly enough to see it pass, if Spartz, Burchett and Massie are the only GOP holdouts.

“There may be more than one” GOP defection, Johnson added on Monday, seemingly leaving those options open. “But we’ll get there. We’re going to get everybody there.”. In the Senate, lawmakers are lying in wait with their own version of a budget framework that does not extend the Trump tax cuts or include the $2.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined by the House plan. And John Thune, the new GOP leader in the upper chamber, is not making it easy for his counterpart.

Some senators continue to grumble about the plan’s divergence from the House’s more conservative priorities, though leadership remains prepared to push for the House to adopt the Senate’s legislation if all else fails. Meanwhile, Thune and a group of other Republicans have signed a letter to Johnson demanding that the Trump tax cuts be extended permanently.

The Senate GOP leader is also hesitant about raising the debt ceiling through the reconciliation process. “We're planning to proceed. But, you know, obviously we are interested in and hoping to hear with more clarity where the White House is coming from,” said Thune last week.

Lindsey Graham, the author of the Senate bill, was more dire in his description of the situation, warning that his bill was the only shot Republicans had at increasing funding for border security this year. “There is no hope of getting money for the border” through the Senate without it, he said.

Donald Trump last Wednesday pushed the Senate to pass the House bill, but even he will not be able to demand the chamber adhere to the House’s plan if the lower chamber cannot muster the requisite votes for it. He has long pushed for a one-bill strategy, largely out of impatience and an unwillingness to see Congress punt on his less-popular priorities.

But he was largely distracted from his efforts to keep the GOP Congress in line on Monday by the arrival of French President Emmanuel Macron, who joined Trump at the White House for a meeting about Ukraine. Johnson hinted instead on Tuesday that he may not be out of ideas should the legislation be rejected by the chamber tomorrow.