As Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Washington to meet Donald Trump, a number of questions remain unanswered. As Volodymyr Zelenskyy heads to Washington to meet Donald Trump, questions remain over the future of Ukraine and the country’s war with Russia. Here are five things we don’t know about a possible deal to end the conflict.
There is enormous scepticism in Kyiv that Putin wants to stop fighting. His unprovoked full-scale invasion in 2022 triggered the biggest war in Europe since 1945. Russian troops are advancing in the east of the country, though there are signs they are slowing down. Speaking earlier this week, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, said Moscow’s long-term strategic ambitions were unchanged. He warned that Putin remains committed to restoring the Russian empire and has designs on former Warsaw pact countries such as the Baltic states and Poland. It is possible the Russian leader will “agree” to a peace deal, in order to regroup and adapt. Ukraine fears that after a tactical pause he will attack again. It wants security guarantees to prevent this scenario.
Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. It controls almost all of Luhansk oblast, much of the Donetsk region, and large chunks of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. Putin has said Ukraine has to recognise “realities on the ground” – in other words, he won’t give this land back. He is likely to demand full control of all four regions, which Russia “annexed” in 2022. Ukraine rejects this. Formally, Kyiv wants the restoration of the country’s 1991 borders. The president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has hinted he is willing to swap territory inside Russia’s Kursk oblast seized seven months ago by Ukrainian forces. The Kremlin has ruled this out and says it will wipe out the “terrorists” instead. If a Trump peace plan favours Moscow and its maximalist claims, Kyiv will almost certainly reject it.
We don’t know. Key Ukrainian allies including the UK, France and recently Turkey have said they are ready to send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping or “peace-assuring” force. Zelenskyy has said that at least 100,000 would be needed. He has also said that Nato membership would be the best guarantee of future security in Ukraine, something Trump has ruled out. The plan, such as it is, envisages European troops being deployed away from the 600-mile (1,000km) frontline and in big cities. At the moment, Russia regularly bombards Kyiv and other urban areas with drones and ballistic missiles. Moscow has said it will not allow “Nato” troops to be sent to Ukraine. If they do arrive, it is unclear how Putin will respond.
The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has said a US backstop is vital if the Europeans are to implement a peace deal. Trump appeared to suggest that the US was willing to provide an economic backstop instead – meaning Americans would be present in Ukraine, as part of a minerals deal, and this would be sufficient to deter the Russians. The meaning of backstop is also unclear. Speaking last week in Kyiv, the Labour MP Alex Sobel said it would mean Nato air cover – to protect western troops and to stop Moscow from violating any ceasefire. There are also questions about US satellite and intelligence data. This has been crucial to Ukraine’s ability to identify and destroy Russian military and logistical targets. Were it to stop, it would hinder Ukraine’s armed forces and a peacekeeping contingent would struggle as well.
The minerals deal between the US and Russia has gone through multiple drafts. Early versions demanded that Kyiv give Washington $500bn (£400bn), with the proceeds paid into a 100% US-controlled fund. This was “payback” for previous US military assistance, Trump said. Commentators described the demand as a mafia shakedown, and reminiscent of Europe’s imperial landgrab in 18th-century Africa. Since then, the $500bn figure has been dropped, with Zelenskyy insisting that previous assistance authorised by Congress was a grant not a debt. The latest draft, which Trump and Zelenskyy are expected to sign on Friday, is vague. It is more like a letter of intent than a detailed and legally binding contract. Some experts believe it might facilitate new investment into Ukraine’s underdeveloped mining and minerals sector. Others are sceptical. Either way, it will be years before profitable titanium, lithium and rare metals can be dug up from new sites, some of which are in Russian-occupied territory.
