In the shadow of Gaza, Israel’s new offensive in the West Bank threatens to break out into all-out war

Overshadowed by Gaza, the latest West Bank offensive - which Israel launched on January 21, two days after the current ceasefire in Gaza took hold - threatens to open a new, bloody chapter. Israeli tanks crawl into a Palestinian town in the occupied West Bank for the first time in two decades. Israel’s defence minister announces its troops will stay in parts of the territory for a year or longer.

Thousands of Palestinians who have already fled this newest battleground are told they will be prevented from returning home. Mediators in US, Qatar and Egypt continue to hope the long-fought-for truce in Gaza will herald long-term peace across the region, even if the deal has been dragged to the brink of collapse by both sides since it came into force last month.

There are now concerns it may falter again after Israel suspended Sunday’s release of 620 Palestinian prisoners, citing the “humiliating" handovers of hostages in staged ceremonies, which were criticised by the US and the Red Cross as cruel. But whether the Gaza deal holds or not, a different war and “land grab” is in full swing in the occupied West Bank, according to Israeli and Palestinian rights groups. If it continues and escalates, it will further undermine any hopes of the Gaza truce being a catalyst for regional peace.

Overshadowed by Gaza, the latest West Bank offensive - which Israel launched on January 21, two days after the current ceasefire in Gaza took hold - threatens to open a new, bloody chapter. Israel has occupied East Jerusalem and West Bank of the Jordan River, which Palestinians want as the core of an independent state, since the 1967 Middle East war.

It has built Jewish settlements that are illegal under international law and widely seen as a major obstacle to peace. Israel disputes this and cites historical and Biblical ties to the land. Since Hamas’s deadly 7 October 2023 assault on southern Israel, the Israeli military has launched deadly military-grade raids in the West Bank - it says to stamp out militancy amid a surge in attacks.

That has resulted in a death toll of at least 800 Palestinians - the highest for the West Bank in decades, according to the United Nations. Israel says most of the dead are militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting Israeli raids, as well as bystanders - and in the most recent operation, a pregnant woman - have also been killed.

Among the dead are at least 195 Palestinian children, which rights group Defence for Children International Palestine believes is the highest rate of child killings in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in over half a century, since the 1967 war. In another escalation over the weekend, Israeli tanks moved into Jenin - the epicentre of armed struggle against Israel - marking the first time tanks have been deployed to the Bank since the Second Intifada in 2002, when Israel fought a deadly Palestinian uprising.

Israeli Defence minister Israel Katz has also instructed the military to prepare for "an extended stay" in some of the West Bank's urban refugee camps, from which about 40,000 Palestinians have fled, leaving them "emptied of residents". Returns will not be permitted, he added.

This has gone hand in hand with a surge in approvals and plans for settlements - which the UN has said have expanded by a “record amount”, risking eliminating any practical possibility of a Palestinian state. Israeli rights group Peace Now has raised concerns that this period has been “peak” for settlement enterprise and annexation.

For example last July, Israel is said to have approved the largest West Bank land seizure in more than three decades when it declared 12.7 sq km (4.9 sq miles) of the Jordan Valley as “state property,” denying Palestinians their private ownership and usage rights.

Peace Now has said that while the people of Israel were focused on the release of the hostages and the end of the war in Gaza: “The Netanyahu government is operating ‘on steroids’ to establish facts on the ground that will destroy the chance for peace and compromise.”.

Israeli NGO Kerem Navot said this week that, in 2024 alone, 60 Israeli settlement outposts - usually illegal even under Israeli law - were established across the West Bank. This represents more than a fifth of all outposts built since 1997, the group added. Another concerning shift.

Right now, a week is left in the ceasefire's first phase, and no negotiations have been reported on the second phase. Israel’s foreign minister Gideon Saar on Monday started talking about “an extension” of phase one rather than progression to stage two.