Inside Gaza’s fragile and furious ceasefire negotiations pushed to the brink of collapse

Hamas has released more hostages after Donald Trump threatened ‘hell would break out’ if they weren’t. Hamas militants released three male Israeli hostages held for nearly 18 months on Saturday after a tense standoff with Israel this week saw the fragile ceasefire pushed to the brink of collapse. Iair Horn, 46, a dual citizen of Israel and Argentina; American-Israeli Sagui Dekel Chen, 36; and Russian-Israeli Sasha (Alexander) Troufanov, 29 were paraded by heavily armed militants on stage in the southern city of Khan Younis before being driven to Israel.

All were abducted from Nir Oz on the October 2023 attack that ignited the war. More than 360 Palestinian detainees are also slated for release on Saturday. Among them were over 300 Palestinians from Gaza detained since 7 October and 36 serving life sentences, according to Palestinian commission for detainees. Eleventh-hour negotiations by Qatar, Egypt and the US pulled the fragile truce back from the brink allowing the release of the three hostages. They appeared pale and worn on Saturday but seemed to be in better physical condition than the three men released last week, who had emerged emaciated and sick sparking uproar in Israel.

The family of Iair Horn, who has diabetes and so needs regular medical assistance, said they “can breathe a little” now he is free. But they added his brother Eithan, 38, remains in Gaza and is not part of the first stage of the ceasefire. The family of American-Israeli Dekel Chen, a father-of-three said on Saturday he would meet his baby daughter Shahar for the first time as she was born while he was in captivity.

The truce - which is only the first of three yet-to-be-fully-negotiated stages - came the closet yet to total collapse this week when Hamas had said it was postponing the hostage accused Israel of violating the terms of the agreement, including shelling the territory and not allowing in shelters and humanitarian aid. Israel’s leaders hit back with counter-claims and threatened to pull out of the agreement. Mr Netanyahu ordered reserves to be called up, soldiers’ leave was postponed, and military officials told The Independent they had deployed additional troops to the border regions.

US president Donald Trump waded in, in a typically bombastic fashion, threatening on Tuesday “all hell is going to break loose” if Hamas reneged on the ceasefire deal that only came into effect a month ago. The original deal was the culmination of a year of furious and often frustrating negotiations by the US, Egypt, and Qatar. Doha – which has been one of the key hosts – at one point in November even said it would no longer negotiate unless both sides showed a “sincere willingness,” with insiders saying, “if you’re hit with a wall, there’s no use.”.

A person briefed on the negotiations painted an extraordinary picture of the frantic efforts to get the deal sealed right until the final seconds - underscoring how fragile the Gaza cease is. The prime minister of Qatar, a Qatari royal, shuttled in an elevator between two floors of a building, delivering messages between the rival camps in the final minutes of negotiations before 17 January. The late introduction of a wildcard Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate investor turned Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy, who spent weeks travelling around the region, was the “fresh energy” that was “instrumental in getting the deal over the line”.

Three delays at the eleventh hour: hitches which were only resolved literally a minute before the press conference to announce the truce was due to start on the ground floor of that same building in Doha. The delays and the uncertainty panicked families of the 76 hostages still remaining in Gaza, who say they are “terrified” their loved ones will not survive if there are any further delays to the process.

It has also worried families in Gaza, who had just returned to the devastated north of the Strip after months of bloodshed and feared they would be forced to flee again, and that moved loved ones would be slaughtered. In many ways, the hard work has only just begun. The completion of phase one – during which 33 hostages are set to be released in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinians in Israeli prisons – is only the first baby step on the road to long-term peace.

Halfway through phase one, talks on the parameters of phase two are supposed to be well advanced, so that – as one person briefed on the talks told me – there can be a seamless “smooth transition” once the first six-week period is over. The second phase of the deal should see the release of all remaining hostages, including male soldiers, more Palestinian detainees freed, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. It is unclear how much progress has been made on how to achieve this, given all the upheaval of recent days.