NASA updates chances of ‘city killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4...

The chances a ‘city killer’ asteroid will crash into Earth in seven years’ time have fallen, NASA has said. Scientists have kept an eye on the ‘near-Earth asteroid’, named 2024 YR4, as it has an orbit that brings it to our region of the solar system.

Image Credit: Metro [Illustration of an asteroid approaching Earth.]

There is currently a 0.28% chance that 2024 YR4 will strike Earth on December 22, 2032 – a drop from 1.5% yesterday – according to the space agency. Meanwhile, the chances the asteroid will hit the Moon increased from 0.8% to 1%. NASA estimates that the asteroid is about 130-300 feet (40-90 metres) wide.

Image Credit: Metro [An illustration of an asteroid striking Earth.]

Experts have modelled what the possible impact of 2024 YR4 – equal to 15,000,000 tons of TNT – could look like. ‘Think of the destruction we wrought on each other during Hiroshima and Nagasaki,’ former International Space Station commander Chris Hadfield said.

Image Credit: Metro [Illustration of a city being destroyed by an asteroid.]

‘This is 500 times more powerful, just because of the energy of it coming through the atmosphere, causing shockwaves, and because of the heating, exploding.’. NASA says that an airburst – or explosion of the asteroid after it enters Earth’s atmosphere – is likely.

Image Credit: Metro [Asteroid impact. Illustration of a large asteroid colliding with Earth on the Yucatan Peninsula in (what is modern day) Mexico. This impact is believed to have led to the death of the dinosaurs some 65 million years ago. The impact formed the Chicxulub crater, which is around 200 kilometres wide. The impact would have thrown trillions of tons of dust into the atmosphere, cooling the Earths climate significantly, which may have been responsible for the mass extinction. A layer of iridium- rich rock, known as the K pg boundary, is thought to be the remnants of the impact debris.]

The agency paints a less terrifying picture of what might occur if the asteroid strikes Earth. It says the damage 2024 YR4 would cause depends on its composition and exact size. ‘If the asteroid entered the atmosphere over a populated region, an airburst … on the smaller side of the size range, about 130-200 feet (40-60 metres) could shatter windows or cause minor structural damage across a city,’ the agency says.

‘An asteroid about 300 feet (90 metres) in size, which is much less likely, could cause more severe damage, potentially collapsing residential structures across a city and shattering windows across larger regions.’. After an airburst, the asteroid is unlikely to cause a ‘significant tsunami’, the agency adds.

By April, the object will be so far away that it will become too faint to be detected by Earth-based telescopes. More updates will not be possible until 2028, when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth again and becomes bright enough to be seen. As more observations are collected, NASA says it is likely the chances of the asteroid striking earth will drop to zero.

Survival and Outdoors Expert Ky Furneaux has offered a step-by-step guide we can follow to keep us alive if an asteroid strikes. The first thing to do ahead of a collision is to leave the coast and head inland. The earth is 71% water, so it is far more likely any comet will hit a body of water and create tsunamis.

The next task would be to find a bunker – the sturdier the better. An underground bunker would be best, as it will shield you from environmental hazards, such as dust and soot, after the comet strikes Earth. This bunker will need to be stocked with essentials, as you wait out the asteroid’s after-effects.

The wait might last months or even years, meaning the bunker needs a heat source, radios, food, water, and medicines. The key is canned food, dried goods, non-perishable foods, and bottled water. Acid rain is one of the main reasons you’ll be locked inside, as massive fires release pyrotoxins into the air.

Your hideout should also have a portable air monitor to test the air outside. Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk. For more stories like this, check our news page. Arrow MORE: How to survive an asteroid impact as odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth increase.

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