Our 2024 NFL predictions revisited: the Chiefs weren’t inevitable after all

We foresaw Kansas City getting to the Super Bowl but underestimated their superb opponents. One of us hit on the rise of a certain rookie though …. Congratulations to the 99% of NFL pundits and fans whose preseason predictions have long made their way through the garbage disposal. Unfortunately, the NFL writers for the Guardian have no such luck. Our villainous editors are forcing us to turn back the clock to early September to revisit our season predictions (you can read them in full here).

While we’d love to take a victory lap and say we saw all the twists and turns coming, that’s not exactly the case (though we did nail a few). So, let’s rip off the Band-Aid and see how our prognostications panned out. What we said before the season: We thought the Jets, Colts, and Bears would be good, but not good enough. We also picked a 10 to 11 win season for the Bears, thinking they would only miss the postseason due to their powerful division. Conversely, one of us thought Buffalo could miss out “given that the offense is weaker without a blue-chip prospect.”.

What actually happened: The Jets and Bears struggled from the start and fired their head coaches before December. Both franchises finished 5-12 and have many issues to repair before even thinking about a playoff run. The Colts narrowly missed out, finishing 8-9 in an AFC South where hovering right below .500 lands you in playoff contention. As for the Bills, who earned an AFC Championship berth, their offense was anything but weak thanks to NFL MVP Josh Allen. Only the Detroit Lions scored more points than Buffalo this season.

What we said before the season: Patrick Mahomes or CJ Stroud? Our writers were split. We picked Mahomes thanks to a “rejuvenated offense” and because “he still can lead the Chiefs to those inexplicable comeback victories.” Stroud got votes because we thought his new offensive weapons, Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, could catapult the second-year slinger to 30-plus touchdowns. What actually happened: Allen (27 first-place votes) narrowly won the award over Lamar Jackson (23 first-place votes). The Chiefs offense, meanwhile, was anything but rejuvenated. Mahomes’ connection with Travis Kelce waned as the season wore on. Though Mahomes pulled a rabbit out the hat many times this season, it was the Kansas City defense that led the way. Stroud’s shiny new wideout, Diggs, tore his ACL in October. Stroud threw 20 touchdowns and while he showed flashes of greatness, he was also on the ground a lot and regressed from his superb rookie season.

What we said before the season: We devoured the Caleb Williams hype, with two of us salivating at the quarterback’s offensive weapons. We also gave a nod to Colts’ defensive end Laiatu Latu, believing he could touch double-digit sacks in his debut campaign. One of our writers was sage enough to see the greatness of Jayden Daniels early, believing his numbers would be boosted thanks to Washington often “playing from behind.”.

What actually happened: Williams had a subpar rookie campaign, marred by bad coaching and holding on to the ball too long. He was sacked a whopping 68 times, the third-most in NFL history. Latu, the first defender taken in the 2024 draft, was disappointing with just 16 solo tackles and four sacks. The home for disruptive rookie defenders proved to be in Los Angeles as Rams outside linebacker Jared Verse won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. His teammate, Braden Fiske, finished third. Daniels, the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year, was an absolute revelation. He led the Commanders to a 7-2 start, capped off by a Hail Mary win over Chicago. It soon became clear that the dual-threat Daniels was a generational talent.

What we said before the season: One of us believed the “indefatigable” Allen would lead Buffalo to another AFC East title. Two of us picked the Dolphins, more as an indictment of Buffalo’s defense, “for the first time in the Sean McDermott era, they’re lacking ability and depth at linebacker and safety.” Then there’s the writer who didn’t even mention the Bills and thought the Jets would take the title because the “sky’s the limit.” Be nice: the same writer was first on the Daniels bandwagon.

What actually happened: The Dolphins finished below .500 in a division where half the teams are rebuilding and, shocker, capped off the season with Tyreek Hill throwing in the towel. Buffalo ran away with the division. What we said before the season: Most of us picked the Ravens with some heavy doting on Jackson (“Explosive! Sensational!”), though we did see some potential weak spots with Baltimore’s “brittle offensive line; and a new, first-time defensive coordinator.” One vote went to the Bengals based largely on Burrow’s renewed health. His blond hair only added to the swagger. Not a word about Pittsburgh or Cleveland.

What actually happened: The Ravens took the AFC North title for the second-straight year. Jackson, who proved impossible to contain, put up better numbers than his two MVP years. Derrick Henry was a juggernaut, finishing with his highest yards per carry total of his career. The Bengals started slow but finished with a five-game win streak and narrowly missed the playoffs. But it was Mike Tomlin and the Steelers who proved again to be a model of consistency (some might say consistently above average but not spectacular). There was a lot to like about the 10-7 Steelers, who earned a playoff bid, even if they fizzled on the final stretch.