When Rwanda-backed rebels seized control of eastern Congo’s strategic city of Goma this week, it prompted a flurry of declarations condemning Rwanda from the U.N. and western nations, including the United States, France and the U.K. Yet, the international community has stopped short of putting financial pressure on Kigali to withdraw its support for the rebels as happened when they took Goma in 2012.
The contrast has to do with the country’s evolving stature both in Africa and the West, where officials have long admired fourth-term President Paul Kagame for his role in uplifting Rwanda in the aftermath of genocide, analysts and diplomats said. They point to Rwanda’s shrewd branding, efforts to make itself more indispensable militarily and economically and divided attention spans of countries preoccupied with wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
“So far there has been significantly less international pressure than there was in 2012 for various reasons, including the new administration in the White House, other ongoing international crises and Rwanda’s role in continental peacekeeping and security operations,” said Ben Shepherd, a fellow Chatham House’s Africa Program. Aid was once a key source of leverage. Kagame’s efforts to transform his small east African nation into a political and economic juggernaut, they say, has made the international community more reluctant to pressure Rwanda.
That's been true when Kagame has abolished term limits and waged a campaign of repression against his opponents at home. It’s been true as he’s backed rebels fighting Congolese forces across the country’s border. And it's remained true despite the fact that Rwanda’s economy is still heavily reliant on foreign aid, including from the United States, the World Bank and the European Union. The United States disbursed $180 million in foreign aid to Rwanda in 2023. The World Bank's International Development Association provided nearly $221 million the same year. And in the years ahead, the European Union has pledged to invest over $900 million in Rwanda under the Global Gateway strategy, its response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
In 2012, that aid was a key source of leverage as the western powers pressured Rwanda to end its role in the fighting. Donor countries withheld aid and the World Bank threatened to. Only a few nations, including the U.K. and Germany, have implied Rwanda’s involvement could jeopardize the flow of aid. But today, the international community has fewer means to influence Rwanda as M23 advances southward from Goma. The United States suspended military aid to Rwanda in 2012 in the months before it seized Goma but can't make the same threats after suspending it again last year. And since taking office, President Donald Trump has since frozen the vast majority of foreign aid, stripping the United States of the means to use it to leverage any country in particular.
Rwandan troops observed pouring into Congo. The Rwanda-backed M23 group is one of about 100 armed factions vying for a foothold in eastern Congo in one of Africa’s longest conflicts, displacing 4.5 million people and creating what the U.N. called “one of the most protracted, complex, serious humanitarian crises on Earth.". A July 2024 report from a U.N. group of experts estimated at least 4,000 Rwandan troops were active across the Congolese border. More have been observed pouring into Congo this week.
Kagame has claimed that M23 rebels in eastern Congo merely want to defend Tutsis from the same Hutu extremists who carried out the genocide that killed some 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus without intervention from the international community. That failure and the resulting guilt informed a generation of politicians’ thinking about Rwanda. “Rwanda’s justifications and references to the genocide continue to play to the West’s perception of it,” said South Africa-based risk analyst Daniel Van Dalen. “There’s always been apprehension to take any decisive action against Rwanda politically or economically.”.
Kagame seen as ‘a beacon of stability and economic growth’. But today, there are other factors at play. Set on transforming the country into the “Singapore of Africa,” Kagame has modernized Rwanda’s infrastructure, raised life expectancy rates and lured companies like Volkswagen and leagues like the NBA to open up shop in-country. Donors and foreign correspondents often profess wonder at Kigali’s clean streets, upscale restaurants and women-majority parliament.
The transformation has won Rwanda admiration from throughout the world, including in Africa, where leaders see Rwanda’s trajectory as a model to draw lessons from. “The history of genocide still plays a role, but Kagame has very cleverly set up relationships with western capitals and established himself as a beacon of stability and economic growth in the region,” said a European diplomat, who did not want to be named because he was not allowed to speak on the matter publicly. “Some capitals still don’t want to see the truth.”.
