Valentine’s Day chocolate prices are soaring. Here’s why

The traditional romantic gift may become a luxury. Chocolate lovers are facing a bittersweet Valentine's Day as climate change threatens the future of cocoa production, according to a new report. The traditional romantic gift may become a luxury as extreme weather events drive up cocoa prices and create uncertainty for farmers, Christian Aid is warning. In 2024, global cocoa prices surged by 400 per cent, the charity said. The increase followed a turbulent period of droughts, floods, and climate-related diseases impacting cocoa harvests.

The resulting shortage has slashed availability on international markets, leading to smaller chocolate bars. West Africa, home to over half of the world's cocoa production, has been particularly hard hit. Ghana and Ivory Coast have experienced rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall. The crisis began in 2023 with unexpectedly heavy rain during Ghana's dry season, causing widespread black pod disease and rotting crops.

A severe drought followed in 2024, impacting over a million people and causing substantial crop losses and record food prices, according to the UN. Christian Aid’s report was published at the same time as a study from Climate Central which revealed that West Africa’s “cocoa belt” across Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Nigeria was heating up with climate change. Analysis of daily maximum temperatures during the past decade shows climate change added at least three weeks a year above 32C during the main cocoa season in Ivory Coast and Ghana, just over two weeks above 32C annually in Cameroon and more than one week in Nigeria.

In 2024, human-caused climate change added six weeks worth of days above 32C in 71 per cent of cocoa-producing areas across the four countries, higher than the optimum temperatures for growing cocoa. Excessive heat can damage the quality and quantity of the cocoa crop, the climate research and communications organisation said. Cocoa growing is being affected in other parts of the world too, with farmers such as Amelia Pop Chocoj, a cocoa grower in Guatemala, saying her plantations have been dying due to the lack of water, meaning there is no food for the family.

“The cocoa trees are dying, which are usually very resilient,” she said, adding that, when it comes to climate-related crop losses, “I’m actually not worried that it ‘may’ happen, it’s happening already”. Christian Aid is calling for action to cut the emissions from fossil fuels and other sources that are driving rising temperatures, and for finance targeted towards cocoa farmers to help them adapt to the changing climate.

And UK chocolatiers have warned that the impact of a rapidly changing climate, as well as El Nino/La Nina patterns in the Pacific which affect weather globally, risks putting small manufacturers out of business. Andy Soden, from Kernow Chocolate, said the company’s wholesale cost of chocolate in 2025 was “very close” to passing the 2023 retail price. “It’s a nightmare. I don’t think any business involved in chocolate has avoided this impact, and it’s all down to climate change,” he said.