New research suggests a troubling trend in the years ahead. A stark warning has been issued about the future of breast cancer in the UK, with projections suggesting a substantial increase in both diagnoses and deaths by 2050. Data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a branch of the World Health Organisation, forecasts a 21 per cent rise in breast cancer cases and a 42 per cent increase in fatalities over the next three decades.
The IARC's analysis compares 2022 figures with projections for 2050 across approximately 50 countries. Currently, the UK sees around 58,756 breast cancer cases annually, with 12,122 resulting in death. Those figures are predicted to climb to 71,006 cases and 17,261 deaths per year by 2050.
The analysis suggests that increasing populations across the globe are behind the rise in projected cases. While the ageing process, and the associated accumulation of cell DNA damage, remains the primary risk factor for all cancers, the IARC data highlights the significant impact of lifestyle choices.
It's estimated that nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of breast cancer cases in the UK are preventable. Obesity and excessive alcohol consumption each contribute to around 8 per cent of cases. Published in Nature Medicine, the study found that, on average, one in 20 women worldwide will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime and, by 2050, there will be 3.2 million new breast cancer cases and 1.1 million breast cancer-related deaths per year if current trends continue.
Overall, one in 70 women around the world will die from the disease. IARC scientist Dr Joanne Kim, one of the authors of the report, said countries needed to work on preventing cancer as well as investing in early cancer detection and treatment. She added: “Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening.”.
