The inner-Vatican machinations of “Conclave” have nothing on this year’s Oscar race. Just as Edward Berger’s film juggles various candidates for the papacy, the race for best picture at the Academy Awards has seen one favorite replaced by another, and then another. While some clarity has lately emerged, with a handful of big wins for Sean Baker’s “Anora,” it seems likely to be a nail biter until a winner is declared at the March 2 Oscars, when white smoke unfurls from the Sistine Chapel, I mean the Dolby Theatre.
As of now, “Anora” is the clear frontrunner thanks to wins with the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild — both prizes with a long history of predicting Oscar winners. Where the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs fall will offer the last major clues. But unlike years like last year, when “Oppenheimer” was way ahead wire to wire, no lead in this year’s best picture race seems ironclad. So, with that in mind, here are the best picture nominees, ranked in order of least likely to win to most likely to win. It’s telling that at least half of these films, with three weeks to go, still have a chance.
10. “Nickel Boys”. If this was a ranking of merit, RaMell Ross’s movie would be first. Ross’ film, thrillingly and thoughtfully shot largely in first person, introduced a new filmic grammar to American movies. But “Nickel Boys” was seemingly on the cusp of getting a nomination, so we should just be glad it’s counted here among the best of the year. 9. “Dune: Part Two”. Denis Villeneuve’s first Frank Herbert adaptation garnered 10 nominations and won six. “Part Two” hasn’t been the same awards force. It’s up for five nominations and will probably walk home with one or two Oscars, possibly for visual effects and sound. People like “Dune: Part Two” but sequels tend to have a harder go of it at the Academy Awards. Blame it on the sandworms.
8. “I’m Still Here”. Arguably no film has risen up the Oscar ranks more than Walter Salles’ portrait of political resistance under Brazil’s military dictatorship. The film, a box-office sensation in its native country, was once one of the many international underdogs vying for a place at the Academy Awards. It won’t win best picture, but it’s a testament to the film’s appeal that it could upset “Emilia Pérez” in best international film.
7. “The Substance”. Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror film has turned out to be much more of an Oscar contender than initially believed — certainly by Universal, which financed the film but sold it to Mubi to distribute. It’s up for five awards but its best chance comes in the best actress category where Demi Moore is the favorite. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) could make that a close call, too, but Moore — propelled by her “popcorn actress” narrative and the movie's biting showbiz satire — is the frontrunner.
6. “Emilia Pérez”. How far can a former frontrunner fall? Jacques Audiard’s narco-musical leads all films with 13 nominations but the Netflix movie has been in freefall since its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, became ensnarled by a scandal over old tweets. I’m not completely counting “Emilia Pérez” out – you don’t get 13 nominations for nothing. But “Emilia Pérez,” a divisive movie to begin with, is now in the business of salvaging its chances in other categories, like best supporting actress, where Zoe Saldaña could win.
5. “Wicked”. Now we’re into the top contenders. Most likely, the winner is coming from one of these next five. Jon M. Chu’s Broadway adaptation might have the most moviegoers rooting for it to win, but it’s missing some key ingredients for pulling out best picture. Chu missed on a nomination for best director and the “Wicked” has mostly been out-musical-ed by “Emilia Pérez” on the awards circuit. Still, “Wicked” has cornered the market on the role of Big Studio Movie contender. However it does, the film academy is going to make sure “Wicked” is front and center during the ceremony.
4. “Conclave”. Here we have our Everyone Likes It contender. Berger’s papal thriller, starring Ralph Fiennes as a cardinal tasked with leading a conclave, feels like the most universally respected nominee. In a year where votes are spread across a lot of films, that might be a quality that — particularly considering the academy’s preferential ballot — leaves “Conclave” driving the Oscar home in a popemobile. What’s the main knock against this happening, aside from the potential difficulty of renting a popemobile? Berger was passed over on a directing nomination, and “Conclave” hasn’t yet won a major award. More than any other movie, it needs a victory at the BAFTAs.
3. “A Complete Unknown”. James Mangold’s Bob Dylan movie is also widely liked and lacks any precursor win. But admiration for “A Complete Unknown” is widespread and it could, just as “Conclave” might, pull out an upset by rising high on a plethora of ballots. Unlike “Conclave,” Mangold was nominated for best director, though, and it has the benefit of being led by Hollywood’s biggest young star, Timothée Chalamet. Hollywood likes to, in picking a best picture winner, say something about its future. Chalamet's star power could be convincing enough. Plus Searchlight Pictures has previously steered quite a few best-picture winners ("Nomadland," “The Shape of Water”). Mangold’s movie has momentum, which, even if it doesn’t lead to best picture, may propel Chalamet to best actor over Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist.”.
