Atran said: “Hamas has only the support of a fifth of the population – a steep decline from a March 2024 PCPSR poll that showed majority support for Hamas in Gaza.
When asked what would be a “realistic and acceptable” ending to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, just under half of the population said some division of territory between Israel and Palestine, either along the pre-1967 borders or those suggested by the UN in 1947, while slightly more than half preferred a dissolution of Israel, with a single Palestinian state under Islamic law the most preferred solution of all.
An unpublished survey conducted just before the ceasefire last month revealed an apparent decline in levels of support for Hamas, though it remains the most popular party in Gaza.
Some analysts believe that Hamas initially made the concessions that helped bring about the ceasefire in part because it is sensitive to public opinion among Palestinians in Gaza, and recognised that to continue the conflict could cause it lasting damage.
Of the many factors that will determine the fate of the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, one of the most difficult to quantify and predict is the level of popular support for Hamas.
