Azerbaijan escalates rare standoff with Russia over downing of passenger plane

Baku reportedly preparing to appeal to ‘an international court’ unless Moscow takes responsibility for crash. Azerbaijan is escalating its rare standoff with the Kremlin as the fallout from the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet continues, highlighting Russia’s diminishing influence across the former Soviet Union. Thirty-eight people were killed when an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed on 25 December near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after rerouting across the Caspian Sea from southern Russia.

After the incident, Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president, Ilham Aliyev, accused Russia of accidentally shooting down the plane with its air defence and criticised Moscow for trying to “hush up” the issue for days, which he said caused “surprise, regret and rightful indignation” in Baku. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, soon issued a rare apology for the “tragic incident”, but stopped short of admitting Russia was responsible.

But in the weeks since, Moscow has struggled to defuse tensions with the oil-rich nation on its southern border. On Wednesday, the APA news agency, which has ties to the Azerbaijani government, reported that Baku was preparing to appeal to “an international court” over Russia’s alleged downing of the plane. “Facts and evidence are being collected, and preparations are under way to appeal to an international court,” APA wrote in an article laced with scathing accusations of Moscow’s attempts “to evade responsibility”.

The identity of those who gave the order to fire and those who opened fire is known to the Azerbaijani side ... The Russian side intends to create a ‘Malaysia Boeing-2’ situation,” the article continued, referencing Russia’s efforts to deny responsibility for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, which investigators concluded was shot down over eastern Ukraine by pro-Russian militias.

APA added that unless Moscow openly admits guilt and takes responsibility, Baku would take further steps. The article, which observers believe could only have been published with approval from local authorities in tightly controlled Azerbaijan, came a day after a report by Kazakh officials that said the plane had sustained external damage and was riddled with holes in its fuselage. The report was cautiously worded and did not say what had caused the damage, including to the plane’s stabilisers, hydraulics and trim systems.

Western experts have previously said the aircraft was probably shot at from Russia. Commenting on the Kazakh report, the Kremlin said it was too early to draw conclusions. Moscow’s continued silence has frustrated officials in Azerbaijan. “We would have expected Russia to publicly take responsibility for shooting down the plane and compensate the victims,” said a source in the Azerbaijani foreign policy establishment who asked for anonymity so he could speak freely.

“Instead, Russia just ignores the crash, hoping it would go away. It is condescending, they are looking down on us,” the source added. On Thursday, tensions further spilt out in the open when Azerbaijan ordered Moscow to shut down the Russian House cultural centre in Baku. The venue is operated by Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian federal agency widely seen as a vehicle for Russian soft power and often suspected of doubling as a front for espionage and covert operations.

Simultaneously, Azerbaijani state media reported that Baku had sent a rare shipment of non-military aid to support Ukraine. Moscow’s spat with Baku comes at a time when Russia is starting to lose its hold on its former backyard. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears of Russian aggression in some countries and forced even its allies to reconsider Moscow’s role as a stable partner. Weakened and preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Russia is also increasingly seen as an unreliable ally and security guarantor.

Azerbaijan’s longtime rival, Armenia, publicly broke with the Kremlin after Russian peacekeeping forces failed to prevent Azerbaijan from sending its troops in 2023 to seize control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a small, ethnic-Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan. Armenia became the first country to leave the Russia-led military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), turning to the west and Iran for support.

Sign up to First Edition. Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it matters. after newsletter promotion. Last week, the Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, even signalled his intention to pursue EU membership. In neighbouring Georgia, the third Caucasus country, tens of thousands of people have been taking to the streets for months over the government’s perceived closeness to Moscow.