Five years after Britain officially left the European Union, Brexit is less popular than ever. YouGov polling on Wednesday showed the number of Brits who think leaving the EU was a good idea is at its lowest since the referendum, with just three in 10 saying it was the right decision. Most voters support Britain returning to the EU, with even one in six who backed the UK’s departure now experiencing regret.

To mark the fifth anniversary, The Independent looked at what Britain was promised before the 2016 vote, and what Britain actually got. One of the most notorious promises made by the Leave campaign was that, due to Britain’s financial contributions to the EU, getting out would free up £350 million each week which could be spent on the heath service. Spending on the NHS has increased since Britain left the EU, particularly during the pandemic, but there is no evidence to suggest Britain’s payments to the EU have been redirected to the service.

Another key selling point for Brexiteers was immigration, and the vow that outside the EU the UK would take back control of its borders. Much of the referendum campaign was focused on immigration, and warnings it would continue spiralling if Britain voted to remain. But the UK’s withdrawal from the EU has not made so much as a dent on net migration figures, with immigration soaring a record high. The net number of immigrants who arrived in the UK in 2023 was 900,000, almost four times higher than the 248,000 figure seen in 2016, the year of the referendum.

Vote Leave also promised the UK would prosper as an independent nation. But official government figures show that Brexit is expected to knock 4 per cent from the size of Britain’s economy in the long run, adding to the squeeze on taxes and public services. And, in a stark warning for those thinking Brexit’s damage would be over five years on from Britain’s official EU exit, official figures revealed by The Independent show that less than half of its impact has yet been felt.

The official Vote Leave campaign repeatedly attacked the EU for increasing the cost of living for Brits and vowed it would fall if the UK pulled out. A key claim was that Britain would scrap VAT on household energy bills outside Europe, saving £64 for each household per year. VAT on household energy bills has not been scrapped, and since Brexit, mainly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy bills and the cost of living have soared.

Brexit has in fact been blamed for exacerbating the cost of living crisis that hit the UK by increasing trade friction and driving up food costs. Another big Brexit bonus promised by Leave backers was a wide-ranging US trade deal that would boost British business. Despite warnings from Barack Obama that leaving the EU would put Britain at the “back of the queue”, Brexiteers pressed ahead with the notion the “special relationship” would open the door to a deal.

Five years after regaining the power to strike individual trade deals, a US deal has continued to evade both Tory and Labour governments. There is little prospect of Sir Keir Starmer signing up to an agreement including agriculture, that would see already furious farmers undercut by American meat producers. So even if a deal does materialise, it is likely to be far smaller in scope than what was touted before the Leave vote.

A far cry from the vision of Britain striking enough trade deals to offset its lost trade with the EU, Brexit is expected to have a long-term 15 per cent hit to overall UK trade. Another Brexit myth pushed by the Leave campaign was that Turkey was set to join the EU within a decade, opening freedom of movement to millions more people. The day before the referendum, former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith said a Leave vote was safer and that those claiming Turkey’s ascension to the EU was a long way off were lying to the British people.

But, almost a decade after the referendum, Turkey’s journey from candidate to full membership status still looks stalled. Boris Johnson once famously told a Northern Irish businessman that if they were asked for customs declarations between Great Britain and Northern Ireland they could “tell them to ring up the prime minister and I will direct them to throw that form in the bin”. Instead certain goods being transported into Northern Ireland under the Windsor Framework require customs declarations.