A lack of growth is a problem for chancellor Rachel Reeves as it typically hits potential tax receipts at a time when her budget rules over the public finances are already under strain.
It emerged on Wednesday that the Treasury had ordered a leak inquiry following a Bloomberg report that updated Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts sent to ministers had downgraded UK growth expectations.
At the same time as the domestic difficulties, global growth is also being challenged by Donald Trump who had threatened at the time of his election victory that universal trade tariffs were imminent.
The risk of shallow recession is still looming large because the margins between contraction and growth are so tight that future revisions may tip the balance either way.
While October's measures were aimed at sparing pain from working people, companies argue that hikes to employer National Insurance contributions from April will knock investment, force job cuts, and impact pay rises.
