How Trump’s migrant standoff with Colombia is warning to all leaders – Don will do ANYTHING to get what he wants in 2025

How Trump’s migrant standoff with Colombia is warning to all leaders – Don will do ANYTHING to get what he wants in 2025

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How Trump’s migrant standoff with Colombia is warning to all leaders – Don will do ANYTHING to get what he wants in 2025
Author: James Halpin
Published: Feb, 02 2025 07:48

DONALD Trump's migrant standoff with Colombia was a signal to all world leaders - and shows nothing is off the table, an expert said. America's allies will have to "roll with the punches" as the president brings his America First agenda back to the world stage. Colombia caved and accepted the return of its own illegal immigrants after Trump threatened to hit the South American nation with tariffs and sanctions.

 [AI-generated image of Donald Trump in a suit and hat, with a sign reading
Image Credit: The Sun [AI-generated image of Donald Trump in a suit and hat, with a sign reading "FAFO" and a smiley face.]

Trump had planned to slap a 25 per cent tariff on Colombian imports - and revoke the visas of government officials. The row came after Colombia stopped two US military aircraft packed with their own citizens from landing in the country last Sunday. Just two hours after Trump's threat, Bogota did a U-turn and agreed to accept migrants with the White House then dropping the threat. Defiant Don later posted a computer-generated image of him standing beside a sign reading FAFO - which usually stands for "f**k around, find out".

 [Photo of world leaders at a summit, including Donald Trump and Angela Merkel.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Photo of world leaders at a summit, including Donald Trump and Angela Merkel.]

Foreign policy analyst Michael O'Hanlon, from the Brookings Institute, said the migrant standoff was a clear warning to world leaders. Bogota's backdown will encourage Trump to threaten allies more, he added. Trump now appears to have a "willingness not to play Mr Nice guy on the world stage" with his second presidency. O'Hanlon told The Sun: "I think Trump has realized that - legally and otherwise - the tariff option is a attractive one, and the opening salvos on this front have been encouraging as well.".

 [Migrants disembarking a Colombian Air Force plane after deportation from the US.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Migrants disembarking a Colombian Air Force plane after deportation from the US.]

Don's moves could also make America's allies more friendly to Trump - and change their behaviour as they try and avoid his wrath. O'Hanlon said: "Trump will certainly feel that the fact that a lot of leaders around the world seem to be trying to engage with him is validation of his basic theory of the case - that he can threaten them. "I think what they're [allies] getting now is sort of what they knew was coming.".

 [Illustration of Trump's conflicts with world leaders.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Illustration of Trump's conflicts with world leaders.]

Looking ahead to the next four years, O'Hanlon said the Colombia row hints at what the world can expect from Trump. O'Hanlon said: "He wants to wield his own personal strength of persuasion, plus the power of the American economy as his main levers for getting his way on a lot of issues.". But O'Hanlon said this kind of blustery approach does carry risks - and potentially spark an unwanted conflict. Tensions could spiral if Trump removes US troops from South Korea, revoked Nato's Article Five protection from some eastern European countries - or continued to say he wouldn't back Taiwan in a Chinese invasion, O'Hanlon said.

 [Colombians deported from the United States arrive at an airport.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Colombians deported from the United States arrive at an airport.]

Trump has made it clear he expects US military support to be paid for by allies - not just conditional on alliance agreements. In those cases, North Korea, Russia, and China could see that as American weakness or an unwillingness to fight and invade. He said: "The question is going to be in the five or 10 places where there is a big fight, what are the consequences?. "We haven't really seen decisions of major consequence [yet].

 [Illustration of Trump's border crackdown plan, showing wall construction, troop deployment, and other measures.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Illustration of Trump's border crackdown plan, showing wall construction, troop deployment, and other measures.]

"If that happens, then people will have to reassess.". In the case of Taiwan, O'Hanlon said Trump could change his mind and back the country if China invaded - even if he said he wouldn't. The president could "decide that the very fact of this aggression has now made Taiwan more important than he previously thought". "Trump might decide China is more of a menace than he even fully appreciated, if something that he's done encourages China to attack," O'Hanlon added.

 [Chinese troops marching in formation.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Chinese troops marching in formation.]

"Trump doesn't care about America's reputation per se. "I don't think he cares that much what other people think about him, home or abroad and so the idea of protecting some image of the United States is exactly what he's not about.". With Trump putting America first, he may be even happy to risk the special relationship with Britain - no matter the cost. O'Hanlon said: "It seems that he's more favorably inclined than not, but he's not completely sold that this is an automatically special relationship, no matter what.".

 [President Trump and President Putin shaking hands at a meeting.]
Image Credit: The Sun [President Trump and President Putin shaking hands at a meeting.]

Starmer, he added, would need to be like Xi Jinping and project "self-confidence", "directness", and "roll with the punches" in order to build a close alliance with Trump and get favourable deals with the United States. The Labour PM would need to build an agenda with Trump where the pair can work together. In his first days in office, Trump has declared illegal immigration a national emergency and imposed a crackdown.

 [Ukrainian soldier firing Msta-B artillery.]
Image Credit: The Sun [Ukrainian soldier firing Msta-B artillery.]

He directed the US military to help with border security, issued a broad ban on asylum, and took steps to restrict citizenship for children born on US soil. The Colombia standoff is being hailed as a victory for Trump. After Bogota backed down, the White House said: "Today's events make clear to the world that America is respected again. "President Trump expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States.".

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