Manchester City are not playing as badly as it looks – but emotion trumps data | Rob Draper
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The champions’ confidence has collapsed during their bad run, but Pep Guardiola’s old rival Klopp may be able to help. Jürgen Klopp knew next to nothing about data before he arrived at Liverpool but his first meeting with Ian Graham, the physicist credited with helping to recruit the team that won the title, could not have gone better. Graham, the director of research at Liverpool, decided to demonstrate to him how the metric expected goals (xG) worked. He went through Borussia Dortmund’s calamitous 2014-15 season, when Klopp’s team had slumped from being second to Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich the previous season to second bottom at Christmas. “Echter Schrott” was the take of the tabloid Bild, which translates as “Absolute Rubbish”.
![[Cole Palmer playing for Chelsea]](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/683e6a47d5287737e7efed55cb3484c300a2b1b3/0_129_4757_2856/master/4757.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none)
Graham had a different interpretation, even before Klopp arrived. His data told him Dortmund remained the second-best team in the league. When Klopp signed his Liverpool deal, Graham took him through Dortmund’s eight worst games of the season, demonstrating how unlucky they were.
![[Jürgen Klopp is unveiled by Liverpool.]](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e0873b79dec5a87d9583ffe85667fced30150238/0_0_3644_2187/master/3644.jpg?width=445&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none)
Klopp grew more and more animated in the presentation. “You saw that game? We destroyed them. It was unbelievable we didn’t score.” Graham hadn’t watched a single minute. He just knew what the data said. “I knew it,” said Klopp. “Well, you didn’t know it,” thought Graham. At least not for sure. Klopp’s footballing gut told him one thing, but results, headlines and the media noise told him he was finished.
Which is why Guardiola may need a call right now from his old protagonist as he takes on Manchester United in the derby on Sunday. Like Manchester City, Dortmund had an injury crisis and had sold key players with their replacements struggling, all of which exacerbated bad luck, making their decline apparently inexplicable.
