While earlier Farage parties lagged well behind the traditional parties of government, the current polls show a three-way tie between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives, all on roughly 25%, with the final quarter of the vote going to smaller left and liberal parties.
Neither Ukip nor the Brexit party were credible local threats in many seats, but the current splintered polling takes us into the zone of maximum electoral chaos where Farage is one threat among many, and even small fluctuations in support could have dramatic effects.
If Reform’s rise continues, incumbents from all the mainstream parties could make gains if the large cohort of voters who strongly oppose Farage become willing to back whoever can stop his local candidate.
But every Reform poll lead brings us closer to the point where Farage can turn the tables, convincing discontented voters that Reform UK is the most viable opposition contender, and engineering a further, and perhaps terminal, Tory decline.
In the latest Opinium poll, the Conservatives lose one in six of their 2024 voters to Reform, while one in three of their 2019 supporters now back Farage’s party.
