Voters in Biden’s home town turned to Trump to lower prices, but some are wary of the president’s economic plans. The annual Downtown on Ice festival is under way in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Ice sculptures are dotted around the city – there was little chance of them melting as an Arctic blast pulled temperatures down to 15F (-9C). Inside Boscov’s, a 100-year-old department store, Sue Sloan says she can’t wait for spring. The 60–year-old housekeeper says she’s also looking for other changes. “Everything is so expensive,” she says. “Food prices, eggs, meat, gas, electricity, everything. It’s terrible,” she says.

Sentiments like that helped Donald Trump deliver arguably the most humiliating defeat to Joe Biden’s administration in last year’s election. Scranton is Biden’s home town, and the local electorate not only turned out against his hand-picked successor, Kamala Harris, but the long-term local Democratic representatives Congressman Matt Cartwright and Senator Bob Casey. Bidenomics – Biden’s economic platform – earmarked billions for the state, but still Trump’s economic messaging on everyday prices won the day.

“It’s 100% the economy all day long. The economy was the 800lb gorilla in this campaign,” says Rob Bresnahan, newly installed Republican congressman for Pennsylvania’s eighth congressional district. Earlier that day Bresnahan had been discussing what to do about a 10.8% hike in gas prices from UGI, a local utility. “People can’t afford to exist. People are having to decide between heating their homes or putting food in their refrigerators,” he says.

But in one of the great puzzles of the 2024 election, some in the area – not all of them Democrats – say the local economy is great. For them, Trump’s messaging was at best misleading. Bob Durkin, president of the Greater Scranton Chamber of Commerce, says business in the area has rarely been better. “This local economy is in really good shape,” says Durkin. Developers have bought every building downtown. Scaffolding is everywhere, covering some of the handsome neoclassical and art nouveau buildings constructed during Scranton’s heyday at the turn of the 20th century. Once unloved, they are being turned into offices, lofts and retail space.

New employers are coming to the area attracted by its lower cost of living and proximity to New York. New restaurants and bars are popping up across the city and attracting crowds even in frigid late January. On the surface the self-styled “Electric City” – Scranton was one of the first cities to have electric lights and streetcars – is shining bright. Durkin’s major concern is shaking off people’s outdated perceptions of Scranton as a failing coal town and finding enough people to fill the jobs employers have, he says.

But a fissure has developed between the economy and people’s experience of it. Ahead of the election, poll after poll showed that voters were unhappy with the economy, even as it recovered from the depths of the Covid recession. It’s been a global phenomenon brought on by people’s intense dislike of inflation, which soared after the pandemic, and one that has humbled incumbent governments worldwide.

Durkin says inflation was “the worst” but the US has fared better than most other countries in the recovery. “I want to be careful what I say here,” he says. “I think people should see it for what it is. It was just a bunch of people saying things that weren’t really true. I mean inflation, yes. The cost of goods was high, but it was high all over the globe. I try to avoid getting involved in anything partisan, but when you look at all the standard measures that anybody would look to, the American economy is humming.”.

Inflation fell faster in the US, growth picked up quicker, he says. “We just had a bunch of people saying it wasn’t true.”. Bresnahan could not disagree more. “The medium household income of my district is $61,000 a year. You’re talking about the S&P, the Nasdaq, the majority of people [in this area] are living paycheck to paycheck. When you are being told time and time again that the economy is booming and we are sitting around with our family deciding whether we can take that vacation this year … we are calling bullcrap.”.

For now, Republicans can point the finger at the Biden administration for the national feeling of malaise that had so many hungry for change. But many of the issues facing Scranton – and large swathes of the US – go back decades, and will prove tough to solve. Many administrations have overseen the decline of well-paid manufacturing jobs, stagnant wage growth, soaring housing costs, lack of affordable childcare. As in other areas across the US, Scranton’s economic boom and influx of new workers have exacerbated existing issues, such as the lack of affordable housing for lower-paid long-term residents.