If Ireland lose to France (who they currently lead by three tournament points) in round four, then things would get complicated and the exact situation would depend on bonus points, final-day results and potentially points difference.
In fact, a draw with France and win over Italy would also be enough to lift the trophy providing it was either accompanied by at least one bonus point or their final points difference was better than England’s if both teams ended on 20 tournament points.
Given France’s mammoth points difference of +91 following big wins over Wales and Italy, realistically Ireland (currently +28 points difference) will need to finish at least one point above them in the final reckoning to take the title.
However, if Ireland get one bonus point in defeat to Les Bleus, then it would come down to points difference between the sides should the men in green secure a bonus-point win over Italy in round five and Ireland currently have a healthy advantage there (+28 to -3).
Two bonus-point wins would take England to 20 tournament points, meaning France would need nine from their last two matches to match them (and then beat them on points difference).
