The fall of Pokrovsk opens up Russia’s army s in the east, potentially opening avenues for attacks in several directions. Russian forces are intensifying their offensive around the strategically vital Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, threatening key supply lines and raising concerns about a potential encirclement. The city, a crucial logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, has become a focal point in the nearly three-year-long conflict.

While Ukrainian defenders are fiercely resisting the Russian advance, the situation in Pokrovsk grows increasingly precarious. The city’s main supply routes are under constant threat, with Russian troops encroaching from multiple directions. Should Pokrovsk fall, it could significantly bolster Russia’s offensive capabilities in the east, potentially opening avenues for attacks in several directions and increasing pressure on Kyiv.

Life for the remaining residents of Pokrovsk is grim. Once a bustling city of 60,000, Pokrovsk’s population has dwindled to a mere 7,000, according to the regional governor. The closure of the last post office, with mail now delivered by armored truck, underscores the city’s isolation and the dangers faced by its inhabitants. The crucial east-west highway that runs through Pokrovsk is now within range of Russian artillery and drone fire, forcing most vehicles to abandon the main road and navigate treacherous backroads for safety.

Adding to the city’s vulnerability, Russian forces have recently reached the main rail line connecting Pokrovsk to the strategically important logistical hub of Dnipro, further restricting supply lines and increasing the risk of encirclement. This development marks a critical juncture in the war, with the fate of Pokrovsk hanging in the balance. “The situation is generally difficult, the enemy is constantly attacking on foot,” said the deputy commander of Ukraine’s 59th assault brigade, which is fighting on the Pokrovsk front.

He asked to be identified by his military call sign, Phoenix, for security reasons. The officer said the enemy had much greater numbers of infantry, attacked in small groups willing to take extremely high casualties and adeptly exploited the landscape and low-visibility weather conditions to hide themselves from drones. “Day and night they are moving forwards,” Phoenix said. Pokrovsk’s road and rail connections have made it an important supply centre for a large section of Ukraine’s frontline, although in recent months the threat of Russian artillery and drones has limited that function.

A map of Pokrovsk:. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said Pokrovsk’s transit routes meant that if it fell, Russian forces could use it as a staging ground to push north or west. “It sets up Russian forces for a potential advance into Dnipropetrovsk region ... further behind the frontlines, they’re building and repairing rail lines.”.

“They can then move up their own logistics and that enables them to push further west.”. Dnipropetrovsk region is a large province whose eastern tip faces Pokrovsk, and Russian troops are currently about 5 km (3 miles) from its boundary. It is not one of the four Ukrainian regions claimed by Russia. With U.S. President Donald Trump pressing the sides to reach a peace deal, Moscow’s occupation of a part of this region could strengthen its hand in future negotiations.

Moscow says it has annexed Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and sees taking control of Pokrovsk as an important stepping stone to incorporating the entire region into Russia. Kyiv and the West reject Russia’s territorial claims as illegal and accuse Moscow of prosecuting a war of colonial conquest. Control of the city, which the Russian media call “the gateway to Donetsk”, would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and boost its campaign to capture Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground offering potential control of a wider area.

Squeezing the Ukrainian military’s access to the road network in the vicinity would make it harder for Kyiv’s troops to hold pockets of territory either side of Pokrovsk, which could allow Russia to advance the front line. Russian forces, according to open source data, have begun to encircle the city in a pincer movement from the southeast and southwest. Viktor Trehubov, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said the Russians were attempting to bypass and surround Pokrovsk from the west.

He said this differed from their approach to taking previous big urban areas, where they opted for costly frontal assaults and street fighting. “It seems that, perhaps for the first time, they have started to spare their manpower,” he said. Three analysts Reuters spoke to said that should it capture the city, Russia had two main options for advancing on the Pokrovsk axis of battle. The first was to push westward into the sparsely populated plains of Dnipropetrovsk region, which are lightly fortified and offer few natural or urban obstacles for Kyiv to use in defence.