Vital Atlantic Ocean currents are unlikely to completely collapse this century, according to a study, but scientists say a severe weakening remains probable and would still have disastrous impacts on billions of people.
The latest study is important because it uses climate models to reveal the reason that the Amoc is more stable: winds in the Southern Ocean continuing to draw water up to the surface and drive the whole system.
“We found that the Amoc is very likely to weaken under global warming, but it’s unlikely to collapse this century,” said Dr Jonathan Baker at the UK’s Met Office, who led the latest study.
“Even just a 50% reduction in strength would result in a large drop in heat transport that would alter regional and global climates,” said Dr Aixue Hu at the Global Climate Dynamics Laboratory in Colorado, US.
Amoc weakening would still bring major climate challenges across the globe however, with more floods and droughts and faster sea level rise, he added.
