The official narrative is that it all depends on not just the upcoming cross-government spending review but also the strategic defence review commissioned after the election and headed by George Robertson, the former defence secretary and then Nato head.
Now, with Trump seemingly more intent on deciding Ukraine’s future with Russia than with European allies, and his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, warning that “Uncle Sucker” can no longer be fully relied on to defend Europe, this is beginning to look like complacency.
More pertinently in a debate that can become bogged down in talk of percentages, British military leaders believe the current annual sum of £64bn is not enough even for current military commitments, let alone mooted new ventures such as involvement in a post-peace multi-nation force to protect Ukraine.
There are perfectly good arguments – ones made regularly by ministers – that just chucking more money at defence without a plan for what you want to achieve can be wasteful and counterproductive, but however many reviews you hold, they all lead to the same fiscal impasse.
With growth sluggish, Reeves’s fiscal headroom fast vanishing, public services already stretched and further major tax rises ruled out, there is no obvious way to raise the annual £7bn or so it would take to hit the 2.5% threshold.
