U.S. deaths expected to exceed births within a decade
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A drop in birth rates is expected due to an estimated loss in immigration. U.S. birth rates are projected to drop within a decade and will be exceeded by deaths, according to new projections released by the federal government this month. A drop in birth rates is expected due to an estimated loss in immigration. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself, the office wrote in its report.
![[The Congressional Budget Office’s projection for fertility rates]](https://static.independent.co.uk/2025/01/14/17/population-growth-and-co.jpg)
The office said it lowered its projected fertility rate from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 and incorporated differences in fertility rates of U.S.-born women and women born elsewhere. In particular, women under 30 are expected to have lower fertility rates, dropping from 0.79 births per woman to 0.62 by 2055. The birth rate for women over 30 is projected to increase from 0.84 births in 2025 to 0.98 births by 2055. The office anticipates more women will delay having children until they’re in their 30s.
The projected rates are based on past trends, the office said. However, the portion of the population aged 65 and older is expected to grow quicker than younger groups, which could cause the average age of the population to rise. A population which is both older and smaller could have significant impacts on the economy and on government policies.
