World Bank estimates huge price Ukraine needs to recover from the war

The estimated cost to rebuild Ukraine following Russia’s invasion has soared to $524 billion, a figure nearly three times its projected economic output for 2024, according to a new assessment. This staggering sum, revealed in a joint study by the World Bank, United Nations, European Commission, and the Ukrainian government, reflects the devastating impact of the ongoing conflict.

The study, incorporating data up to December 31, 2026, reveals a stark 7% increase from the $486 billion estimated just a year ago. This surge is partly attributed to a 70% rise in damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure resulting from sustained Russian attacks. The sectors bearing the brunt of the devastation include housing, transport, energy, commerce, and education.

Beyond simply quantifying the physical destruction of buildings and infrastructure, the assessment delves into the profound impact on Ukrainian lives and livelihoods. It also factors in the substantial costs associated with rebuilding not just to pre-war levels, but to “build back better,” incorporating improved resilience and sustainability, as stated in the joint news release from the institutions.

“In the past year, Ukraine’s recovery needs have continued to grow due to Russia’s ongoing attacks,” Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in a statement. Ukraine’s government has allocated $7.37 billion to address priority needs for 2025, with support from donors, but still has a financing gap of nearly $10 billion, the joint statement said.

The latest assessment, using a universal methodology to assess damages and needs, found that direct damage in Ukraine from Russian attacks has risen to $176 billion from $152 billion reported in February 2024. About 13% of Ukraine’s total housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 2.5 million households.

It cited a 70% increase in damaged or destroyed assets in the energy sector since the last assessment one year ago, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure and district heating. The housing sector accounted for about $84 billion of the total long-term needs, followed by transport with almost $78 billion, energy and mining with almost $68 billion, commerce and industry with over $64 billion, and agriculture with over $55 billion.

The cost of debris clearance and management alone was pegged at almost $13 billion, the report said. Antonella Bassani, the World Bank’s vice president for Europe and Central Asia, said the assessment showed the progress Ukraine has already made on physical and economic recovery, reforms and reconstruction needs.

It excluded over $13 billion in needs across eight sectors that have already been met by Ukraine with the support of its partners and the private sector. That includes some $1.2 billion disbursed from state budget and donor funds for housing needs and over 2,000 km (1,243 miles) of emergency road repairs.