Labour would lose almost 200 seats if election held today, new poll suggests
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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests. While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a "highly fragmented and unstable" parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.
More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK's First Past the Post (FPTP) system is "struggling to function" in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation "difficult".
The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives. According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP - with "red wall" gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.
Nigel Farage's Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72. A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform - the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories - including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is "not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election", which is not expected until 2029.
