If there was an election tomorrow, this is who would win (but only by 1%)
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Keir Starmer’s Labour party would win another general election if one was held tomorrow, according to the first YouGov poll since last year’s vote. However, the margin of victory for the government would be extremely small – and it’s not the Conservatives who pose the biggest threat.
Instead, it’s Reform UK who are just 1% behind Labour in the poll. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch will be jittery over statistics showing 15% of those who backed her party last July would now choose Reform instead. Labour won a landslide of 412 seats at the general election despite picking up just under 34% of the national vote total.
It would be very difficult for the party to hold on to anywhere near as many constituencies with the backing of just 26% of voters, as the YouGov poll suggests it would now get. But unlike the Conservatives, it appears Labour’s support is not leaking over to a single party.
Among its backers at the last election, the YouGov poll says 4% would now vote Tory, 5% would vote Reform, 6% would go for the Green Party and 7% would vote Liberal Democrat. That could pose a challenge for the PM as he tries to work out which tack the country would prefer his government to take.
Alternatively, he may be buoyed by the finding that 17% of Labour voters say they don’t know what party they would now opt for – suggesting he may have a chance of winning them back if he keeps manifesto promises. The polls also shows Reform has a three-point lead among British men, while Labour and the Tories are tied on 25% among women.
