The Academy has traditionally loved a female ingenue - although Sky News research revealed last year that the age gap between male and female acting winners is definitely closing - which would favour Mikey Madison; and yet, Demi Moore's real-life story arc has also won her a legion of supporters this year.
Who will win: Adrien Brody - II; Timothee Chalamet - IIWho should win: Colman Domingo - III; Adrien Brody - I.
Who will win: Demi Moore - IIIIWho should win: Demi Moore - I; Mikey Madison - III.
Those arguments are a little reductive and should not take away from the real reasons why both would be worthy winners - for two very different but equally excellent performances - but it would be wrong to say performance is the only thing taken into account when it comes to voting.
I think it will win and should win - it has a cracking cast, skilled direction, a propulsive storyline, and humour to boot.
