Just as his war against Georgia was largely a reaction to its pro-western revolution of 2003, Ukraine was to be “punished” for the 2004 Orange revolution that threatened to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit.
More than once, Putin and his spin doctors have insisted that Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with the west in Ukraine.
Instead of a civil war in Ukraine, Putin got a low-intensity war in Donbas that he could not win.
The weak western response to Russia’s aggression in Georgia gave Putin reason to believe that it would react similarly in the case of Ukraine.
After Russia’s victory, Vladimir Putin subsequently adopted plans for a full-scale war against Ukraine.
