UK population set to grow by five million within ten years - with net migration levels highest in Europe for the first time
UK population set to grow by five million within ten years - with net migration levels highest in Europe for the first time
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The UK population is set to grow by five million people in ten years, despite death rates being projected to overtake birth rates in that time. All of the forecast population growth is due to migration. Britain is expected to take in a total of 494,000 more people a year on average over the next decade than the amount who leave, analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals.
There are expected to be about 30,000 more deaths than the number of children born over that time. Net migration in 2023 was 906,000. However, with recent changes to student visas and less current movement of Ukrainians and other refugees, it's projected to decline significantly from current high levels - though still remain at a higher rate than any year prior to 2022.
Of course, future global shocks are impossible to predict and could impact migration. Despite the fall, it would mean the UK having the highest migration rate in Europe by 2029 (excluding countries with populations smaller than 500,000), overtaking the Netherlands, Ireland, and countries that border Ukraine.
The figures for other countries are based on UN measures, which are slightly different in methodology to those in the UK. That would be the first time on record, going back to at least 1950, that the UK has had the highest net migration rate in the continent.
The vast majority of migrants to the UK tend to be of working age, which is good for the economy in the short term. However, the projections show that the age profile of the country will continue to get older, posing potential problems in years to come in affording to support those of pension age.
