As U.S. police departments release preliminary or finalized 2024 crime numbers, many are reporting historic declines in homicides and drops in other violent crimes compared to 2023. In many parts of the country, though, those decreases don't match the public perception.
Experts say most cities are seeing a drop in crime levels that spiked during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. But they say misleading campaign rhetoric in the runup to the November elections and changes in how people interpret news about crime have led to a perception gap.
“The presence of even one murder has a great cost,” said Kim Smith, the director of national programs at the University of Chicago's Crime Lab. Violence interruption and intervention programs have helped decrease gun violence and homicide numbers in Chicago and elsewhere, Smith said. But even with fewer crimes, people experiencing it in their neighborhood lowers their perception of being safe.
"The presence of those crimes is the thing that people get the most distress from, and that has the biggest impact on people being able to enjoy their neighborhood and on quality of life,” she said. Jeff Asher, cofounder of AH Datalytics, tracks crimes across the country using law enforcement data for the group's Real-Time Crime Index. He said the data, which lags by about 45 days rather than being reported quarterly or annually like a lot of crime statistics, allows communities and experts to evaluate and respond to trends as they are happening.
