Editorial: If Ukraine is effectively indefensible, for lack of American support, then Europe as a whole is far weaker – and Nato is dangerously undermined. For a man who prides himself on his mastery of the “art of the deal”, Donald Trump has made an unpromising start to his negotiations with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. According to the US president’s vainglorious business guide, published in 1987: “My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.”.
If so, then he has broken his own rule by aiming rather low as a starting point. Between the president, vice-president JD Vance and the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, significant concessions have been gifted to Mr Putin before the two leaders have even met – and, apparently, without any prior consultation with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. The American government, for so long insistent on respecting Ukrainian sovereignty, has abandoned this formal position and unilaterally declared that Ukraine will not revert to the situation before 2014. It is fair to say, as Mr Hegseth asserts, that recovering Crimea and the most eastern parts of Ukraine is no longer a practical possibility, if only because Mr Trump regards it as too expensive. However, it should be the starting point for any nation that is a victim of aggression to have its formal rights stated – and not to have the legal claim to its own lands obliterated before anything is offered in return, such as future security guarantees.
Far from offering any “leverage” (another key to success according to Mr Trump) in respect of security guarantees, America has given up even more valuable bargaining chips. With no matching concessions from President Putin, Ukraine has been left in an unsustainable and weak position. Even if Ukraine’s future as an independent sovereign state could only be assured if there is some form of American presence on the ground – or a solemn guarantee – both such options have been ruled out already by the United States, much to the delight of Moscow.
Put at its simplest, a coalition of willing European powers prepared to offer such guarantees and to maintain a physical presence will not be sufficient to deter Russia from future hostile activities. In many European capitals, usually the further west they are from the Russian border, there will be a reluctance to commit to going to war over the remains of Ukraine. The Nato principle of “an attack on one is an attack on all” will be readily agreed by, say, Poland and the Baltic states, but not Hungary or traditionally neutral states such as Ireland. In any case, as with the humiliation of Ukraine in this process, the European Union, the UK and other European entities are not going to be involved in the Trump-Putin talks.
The betrayal of Ukraine that is now underway is also a betrayal of America’s friends and allies in Europe. If Ukraine is effectively indefensible, for lack of American support, then Europe as a whole is far weaker. It further undermines Nato, already being treated as a purely contingent and transactional obligation by President Trump. In a chilling address at the Munich Security Conference, Mr Hegseth stated: “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” That cannot inspire confidence among European allies – it clearly signals a running down of the American presence in Europe.
No doubt Mr Putin will accept Mr Trump’s invitation to talks, but he is under no obligation either to agree or to stick to any ceasefire. Mr Putin may well feel that he has little to lose from pressing on with the fighting, during which his forces have recently made painful (but nonetheless positive) progress. It seems a safe bet for the Kremlin that President Trump won’t respond by ramping up support for Ukraine.
During the first invasions of Ukraine in 2014, when the “red lines” set by President Obama were transgressed by Russia with impunity, Mr Putin had an even safer bet that he could push further against a weakened and demoralised Ukraine. This is not “peace through strength”, but a surrender. In stark contrast to his warm words about President Putin, Mr Trump has said nothing about President Zelensky except to point to his supposed unpopularity. He is treating Ukraine as no more than a future source of rare earth minerals and other resources – military aid now “secured” by claims on Ukraine’s assets. Perversely, though, Mr Trump doesn’t seem in any rush to protect America’s newly gained financial interests.
It is all profoundly depressing. It seems very clear now that Ukraine will be dismembered by Russia and America, with the Ukrainian government reduced to a spectator. The historical precedents are pitiful. There are awful echoes of president Emil Hacha of Czechoslovakia being reduced to a Nazi puppet in 1938 as his country was carved up, or the way president Nguyen Van Thieu had to swallow the inevitable collapse of South Vietnam after his abandonment by Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in 1973.
