Nottingham Forest v Southampton: Best bets for all Sunday’s Premier League games
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See the Wood for the trees at the City Ground. It’s a magical time to be a Nottingham Forest fan, but in the cold light of data, how solid are their top-six credentials?. On one measure – net transfer spend from 2022-23 on according to Transfermarkt.com – they are a top-six club already.
On another data set – expected points for this season – Forest sit a less thrilling ninth. Performance boffins Understat.com say Forest have out-earned their expectations by nearly 10 points, by far the biggest upside in the Prem. Doing better than ‘expected’ IS a defining characteristic of top-six sides but this is off the scale.
The strong likelihood is that Forest’s current degree of overreach is unsustainable. Out of the data cloud, and back on the pitch, lack of goals is one obvious reason why. But Forest set-piece threat Chris Wood can ignore those stats and use his head the old-fashioned way when Southampton visit (2pm).
Wood ‘anytime scorer’ at 6/5 (Bet365) and Anthony Elanga ‘anytime assist’ at 10/3 (Coral, Lads) add up against this Saints defence. Manchester City’s trip to Ipswich (4.30pm) would have looked like a tap-in at the start of the season. Not now.
But Savinho’s recent performances have been one of the lights at the end of City’s tunnel, and the Brazilian ‘anytime assist’ at 5/2 (Coral, Lads) is OK. Would Tottenham fans take David Moyes as head chef over Ange Postecoglou?. Take porridge every day, over the thrills and spills of sushi, that may or may not be past its date?.
